How to address low fertility fears? Invest in young people | Division for Inclusive Social Development (DISD)

It is increasingly apparent that investing in people is the solution to a thorny demographic problem: Many see the low fertility rates and ageing populations in Eastern Europe as an impending crisis, which will place huge burdens on social systems in the future.

Most policies focusing narrowly on increasing birth rates have failed, said Heimo Laakkonen, UNFPA’s Regional Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and studies show that there is little chance fertility rates will grow significantly in the near future.

“Low fertility is now a global phenomenon, and expectations to get fertility rates back up above replacement level are quite unrealistic,” said Tomas Sobotka, one of Europe’s leading demographers, referring to the average number of 2.1 children per women that is widely seen as necessary to maintain the size of a population. This means that population ageing will continue at a fast pace. However, experts say there is little to worry about, if governments make the right policy choices and invest in young people.

A major paradigm shift is that policymakers in Eastern Europe and Central Asia are increasingly looking to build the ‘human capital’ of their populations, rather than pursuing population targets. As Mehmet Ceylan, Turkey’s Deputy Minister of Development, said: “Simply having more people doesn’t make a country successful.”

However, by investing in the health and education of people, governments can expect huge returns, because better educated and healthy workers will increase the productivity and innovation, and decrease the burdens on social systems. It is also expected to see returns from increasing gender equality and reducing discrimination.

There is a window of opportunity in which to make these investments, Mr. Laakkonen said. Countries in the region could realize a ‘demographic dividend’ – economic gains that can occur when fertility rates fall and working-age populations grow – if they act now. Demographic dividends have helped catapult a number of countries, mostly in East Asia, out of extreme poverty.

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